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Araz vs Imisli Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:30

Araz

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Imisli

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.4%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.7%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.6%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 44.4% 2.25 -11.1%

Draw 30.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.4%

Away win 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -7.6%

Over 2.5 45.6% 48.8% 2.05 -6.5%

Over 3.5 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -11.7%

BTTS 52.5% 57.1% 1.75 -8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.5%

D 31% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Araz1.4

Imisli1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAZ · PPG 1.64

IMISLI · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Araz (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -11.1%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.4%

Imisli (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Araz face Imisli in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Araz a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Imisli 30%, so Araz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Araz and 1.1 for Imisli (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Araz are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.40 for Imisli. This match finished 0-1.

Araz vs Imisli Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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