Today / Spain - Segunda División / Leonesa vs Cadiz

Leonesa vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:15

Leonesa

PPG 0.72 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Cadiz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.7%0-26.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.4%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.5%2-17.5%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 50.0% 2.00 -33.4%

Draw 32.4% 30.3% 3.30 +6.9%

Away win 34.4% 26.7% 3.75 +29.0%

Over 2.5 40.3% 48.8% 2.05 -17.4%

Over 3.5 20.0% 27.0% 3.70 -26.0%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leonesa1.1

Cadiz1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONESA · PPG 0.72

CADIZ · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.72), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Leonesa (H) 33.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -33.4%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.9%

Cadiz (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leonesa face Cadiz in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leonesa a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Cadiz 34%, so Cadiz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Leonesa and 1.2 for Cadiz (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leonesa are averaging 0.72 points per game versus 1.00 for Cadiz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Leonesa vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions