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Leonesa vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:15

Leonesa

PPG 0.72 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Cadiz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.7%0-26.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.4%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.5%2-17.5%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 50.0% 2.00 -33.4%

Draw 32.4% 30.3% 3.30 +6.9%

Away win 34.4% 26.7% 3.75 +29.0%

Over 2.5 40.3% 48.8% 2.05 -17.4%

Over 3.5 20.0% 27.0% 3.70 -26.0%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leonesa1.1

Cadiz1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONESA · PPG 0.72

CADIZ · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.72), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Leonesa (H) 33.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -33.4%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.9%

Cadiz (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leonesa face Cadiz in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leonesa a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Cadiz 34%, so Cadiz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Leonesa and 1.2 for Cadiz (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leonesa are averaging 0.72 points per game versus 1.00 for Cadiz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Leonesa vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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