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Kreuzlingen vs Paradiso Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Kreuzlingen

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Paradiso

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.5%0-24.5%0-32.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.0%1-19.7%1-27.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.1%3-15.0%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 40.0% 2.50 +0.5%

Draw 25.6% 30.3% 3.30 -15.5%

Away win 34.2% 41.7% 2.40 -17.9%

Over 2.5 65.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.7% — — —

BTTS 67.8% 64.5% 1.55 +5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob67.8%

H 40% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kreuzlingen1.8

Paradiso1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KREUZLINGEN · PPG 1.14

PARADISO · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Kreuzlingen (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +0.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.5%

Paradiso (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kreuzlingen face Paradiso in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kreuzlingen a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Paradiso 34%, so Kreuzlingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kreuzlingen and 1.6 for Paradiso (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kreuzlingen are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.79 for Paradiso. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Kreuzlingen vs Paradiso Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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