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Cham vs Basel B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Cham

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Basel B

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.4%0-24.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.8%1-19.6%1-27.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.0%3-15.0%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.2%4+-22.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 52.4% 1.91 -24.4%

Draw 25.4% 26.0% 3.85 -2.2%

Away win 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Over 2.5 66.2% 70.4% 1.42 -6.0%

Over 3.5 44.4% 48.8% 2.05 -9.0%

BTTS 68.3% 72.5% 1.38 -5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob68.3%

H 40% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cham1.8

Basel B1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAM · PPG 1.71

BASEL B · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Cham (H) 39.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.2%

Basel B (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cham face Basel B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cham a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Basel B 35%, so Cham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cham and 1.6 for Basel B (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cham are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.79 for Basel B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Cham vs Basel B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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