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Bashkimi vs Vardar Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Bashkimi

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Vardar

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-110.3%0-210.4%0-36.9%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.9%1-19.9%1-29.9%1-36.7%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.4%2-14.8%2-24.8%2-33.2%2-4+2.6%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.8% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 60.3% — — —

Over 2.5 57.0% — — —

Over 3.5 34.6% — — —

BTTS 54.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.9%

A 60% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 0–2 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 0–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bashkimi1.0

Vardar2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BASHKIMI · PPG 1.47

VARDAR · PPG 2.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Bashkimi (H) 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vardar (A) 60.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bashkimi face Vardar in Macedonia - First League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bashkimi a 16% chance, the draw 24% and Vardar 60%, so Vardar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bashkimi and 2.0 for Vardar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bashkimi are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 2.36 for Vardar. This match finished 0-0.

Bashkimi vs Vardar Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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