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Real Sociedad B vs Racing Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 36 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:30

Real Sociedad B

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Racing

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+16.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.1%0-26.2%0-35.1%0-4+5.6%1 1-02.9%1-17.2%1-28.9%1-37.3%1-4+8.0%2 2-02.1%2-15.2%2-26.3%2-35.2%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.0%3-12.5%3-23.0%3-32.5%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.2% 34.2% 2.92 -38.1%

Draw 18.7% 26.3% 3.80 -28.9%

Away win 60.1% 46.5% 2.15 +29.2%

Over 2.5 74.4% 63.7% 1.57 +16.8%

Over 3.5 54.3% 41.7% 2.40 +30.3%

BTTS 69.5% 67.6% 1.48 +2.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 73%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob69.5%

A 60% / xG 1.4-2.5 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–3✓ 7.3%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad B1.4

Racing2.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD B · PPG 1.53

RACING · PPG 1.59

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad B (H) 21.2%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -38.1%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -28.9%

Racing (A) 60.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad B face Racing in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad B a 21% chance, the draw 19% and Racing 60%, so Racing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Real Sociedad B and 2.5 for Racing (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad B are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.59 for Racing. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Real Sociedad B vs Racing Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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