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Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Gorica

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Away 67% chance

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-110.4%0-210.0%0-36.4%0-4+4.8%1 1-05.4%1-110.3%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.7%2-15.1%2-25.0%2-33.2%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.7%3-21.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.5% 14.3% 7.00 +22.5%

Draw 24.9% 23.0% 4.35 +8.3%

Away win 57.5% 71.4% 1.40 -19.5%

Over 2.5 55.9% 61.7% 1.62 -9.4%

Over 3.5 33.6% 39.2% 2.55 -14.3%

BTTS 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.4%

A 57% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 1–2✓ 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gorica1.0

Dinamo Zagreb1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GORICA · PPG 1.31

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.19

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

67%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Gorica (H) 17.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +22.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +8.3%

Dinamo Zagreb (A) 57.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gorica face Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gorica a 18% chance, the draw 25% and Dinamo Zagreb 57%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gorica and 1.9 for Dinamo Zagreb (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gorica are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 2.19 for Dinamo Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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