Today / Italy - Serie B / Sampdoria vs Monza

Sampdoria vs Monza Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:30

Sampdoria

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Monza

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+47.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-116.9%0-215.1%0-39.0%0-4+6.1%1 1-05.4%1-19.6%1-28.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.5%2 2-01.5%2-12.7%2-22.5%2-31.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.2% 30.8% 3.25 -63.6%

Draw 21.8% 30.8% 3.25 -29.1%

Away win 67.1% 45.5% 2.20 +47.6%

Over 2.5 42.1% 45.5% 2.20 -7.4%

Over 3.5 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -10.1%

BTTS 36.3% 54.1% 1.85 -32.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob36.3%

A 67% / xG 0.6-1.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.9%

#2 0–2 15.1%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 0–3✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sampdoria0.6

Monza1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMPDORIA · PPG 1.71

MONZA · PPG 1.59

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Sampdoria (H) 11.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -63.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -29.1%

Monza (A) 67.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +47.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sampdoria face Monza in Italy - Serie B on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sampdoria a 11% chance, the draw 22% and Monza 67%, so Monza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Sampdoria and 1.8 for Monza (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sampdoria are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.59 for Monza. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Sampdoria vs Monza Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions