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Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Kilmarnock

PPG 1.12 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dundee Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.5%0-25.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.0%1-111.0%1-28.7%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.1%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% 45.0% 2.22 -24.5%

Draw 27.3% 28.2% 3.55 -3.1%

Away win 38.6% 33.8% 2.96 +14.3%

Over 2.5 58.9% 58.8% 1.70 +0.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 35.7% 2.80 +2.2%

BTTS 62.9% 62.5% 1.60 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.9%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kilmarnock1.5

Dundee Utd1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KILMARNOCK · PPG 1.12

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kilmarnock (H) 34.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -24.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.1%

Dundee Utd (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kilmarnock face Dundee Utd in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kilmarnock a 34% chance, the draw 27% and Dundee Utd 39%, so Dundee Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kilmarnock and 1.6 for Dundee Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kilmarnock are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Dundee Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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