Today / Scotland - Premiership / Falkirk vs Motherwell

Falkirk vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Falkirk

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Motherwell

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.5%0-27.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.0%1-112.0%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-17.6%2-25.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 38.5% 2.60 -21.0%

Draw 28.9% 29.4% 3.40 -1.7%

Away win 40.7% 39.1% 2.56 +4.2%

Over 2.5 52.0% 55.6% 1.80 -6.4%

Over 3.5 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.6%

BTTS 57.4% 61.7% 1.62 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.4%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkirk1.3

Motherwell1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKIRK · PPG 1.35

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.35), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Falkirk (H) 30.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -21.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.7%

Motherwell (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkirk face Motherwell in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkirk a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Motherwell 41%, so Motherwell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Falkirk and 1.5 for Motherwell (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkirk are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.29 for Motherwell. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Falkirk vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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