Today / Scotland - Premiership / Falkirk vs Motherwell

Falkirk vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Falkirk

PPG 1.35 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Motherwell

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.5%0-27.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.0%1-112.0%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-17.6%2-25.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 38.5% 2.60 -21.0%

Draw 28.9% 29.4% 3.40 -1.7%

Away win 40.7% 39.1% 2.56 +4.2%

Over 2.5 52.0% 55.6% 1.80 -6.4%

Over 3.5 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.6%

BTTS 57.4% 61.7% 1.62 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.4%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkirk1.3

Motherwell1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKIRK · PPG 1.35

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.35), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Falkirk (H) 30.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -21.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.7%

Motherwell (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkirk face Motherwell in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkirk a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Motherwell 41%, so Motherwell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Falkirk and 1.5 for Motherwell (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkirk are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.29 for Motherwell. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Falkirk vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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