Dundee FC vs St. Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Scotland - Premiership Relegation Group - 35 Dens Park· Dundee Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Dundee FC PPG 1.38

1-0 HIT CS3

St. Mirren PPG 0.59

Home· +5.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee FC face St. Mirren in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee FC a 42% chance, the draw 30% and St. Mirren 28%, so Dundee FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dundee FC and 1.1 for St. Mirren (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.59 for St. Mirren. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.0%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +5.0%

Draw 30.1%

Odds: 3.40 EV: +2.3%

Away 27.9%

Odds: 2.68 EV: -25.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.8% Odds: 1.90 -11.1%

Over 3.5 25.2% Odds: 3.25 -18.1%

BTTS 53.1% Odds: 1.70 -9.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Dundee FC

1.42

St. Mirren

1.12

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+5.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 1.4%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.59)