Today / Scotland - Premiership / Dundee FC vs St. Mirren

Dundee FC vs St. Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Dundee FC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

St. Mirren

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.8%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.2%1-112.5%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.9%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 40.0% 2.50 +5.0%

Draw 30.1% 29.4% 3.40 +2.3%

Away win 27.9% 37.3% 2.68 -25.2%

Over 2.5 46.8% 52.6% 1.90 -11.1%

Over 3.5 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -18.1%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0✓ 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee FC1.4

St. Mirren1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE FC · PPG 1.38

ST. MIRREN · PPG 0.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.59)

Win probability 1X2

Dundee FC (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +5.0%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +2.3%

St. Mirren (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee FC face St. Mirren in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee FC a 42% chance, the draw 30% and St. Mirren 28%, so Dundee FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dundee FC and 1.1 for St. Mirren (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.59 for St. Mirren. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Dundee FC vs St. Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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