Swindon Town vs Chesterfield Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two Regular Season - 46 County Ground· Swindon Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Swindon Town PPG 1.77

1-2 HIT CS4

Chesterfield PPG 1.59

Home· +13.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Swindon Town face Chesterfield in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swindon Town a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Chesterfield 31%, so Swindon Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Swindon Town and 1.3 for Chesterfield (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swindon Town are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.59 for Chesterfield. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.1%

Odds: 2.82 EV: +13.1%

Draw 28.9%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +4.0%

Away 31.0%

Odds: 2.30 EV: -28.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.4% Odds: 1.67 -12.5%

Over 3.5 30.2% Odds: 2.70 -18.5%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.53 -11.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✔

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Swindon Town

1.49

Chesterfield

1.29

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+13.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.77), Away GOOD (1.59)