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Swindon Town vs Chesterfield Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Swindon Town

PPG 1.77 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chesterfield

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.0%0-25.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.3%1-111.9%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.9%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.4%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 35.5% 2.82 +13.1%

Draw 28.9% 27.8% 3.60 +4.0%

Away win 31.0% 43.5% 2.30 -28.7%

Over 2.5 52.4% 59.9% 1.67 -12.5%

Over 3.5 30.2% 37.0% 2.70 -18.5%

BTTS 57.8% 65.4% 1.53 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.8%

D 29% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–2✓ 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swindon Town1.5

Chesterfield1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SWINDON TOWN · PPG 1.77

CHESTERFIELD · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.77), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Swindon Town (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +13.1%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +4.0%

Chesterfield (A) 31.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swindon Town face Chesterfield in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swindon Town a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Chesterfield 31%, so Swindon Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Swindon Town and 1.3 for Chesterfield (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swindon Town are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.59 for Chesterfield. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Swindon Town vs Chesterfield Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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