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Osijek vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:15

Osijek

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Varazdin

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

// Model verdict

Away 39% chance

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 33.3% — a clear edge.

+60.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-116.1%0-211.6%0-35.6%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.1%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-03.1%2-14.5%2-23.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.5% 43.9% 2.28 -55.5%

Draw 26.9% 31.7% 3.15 -15.3%

Away win 53.6% 33.3% 3.00 +60.8%

Over 2.5 37.5% 46.5% 2.15 -19.4%

Over 3.5 17.9% 25.3% 3.95 -29.3%

BTTS 40.3% 54.6% 1.83 -26.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob40.3%

A 54% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–2✓ 11.6%

#4 0–0 11.2%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osijek0.8

Varazdin1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OSIJEK · PPG 1.07

VARAZDIN · PPG 1.07

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

39%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Osijek (H) 19.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -55.5%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -15.3%

Varazdin (A) 53.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +60.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osijek face Varazdin in Croatia - HNL on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osijek a 20% chance, the draw 27% and Varazdin 54%, so Varazdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Osijek and 1.4 for Varazdin (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osijek are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.07 for Varazdin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +60.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Osijek vs Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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