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Nyva Ternopil vs M. Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:30

Nyva Ternopil

PPG 1.08 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

M. Kharkiv

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-113.2%0-26.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.5%2-16.9%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% — — —

Draw 35.5% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 30.6% — — —

Over 3.5 13.1% — — —

BTTS 40.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob40.3%

D 36% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nyva Ternopil1.0

M. Kharkiv0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NYVA TERNOPIL · PPG 1.08

M. KHARKIV · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Nyva Ternopil (H) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

M. Kharkiv (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nyva Ternopil face M. Kharkiv in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nyva Ternopil a 35% chance, the draw 36% and M. Kharkiv 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nyva Ternopil and 0.9 for M. Kharkiv (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nyva Ternopil are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.18 for M. Kharkiv. This match finished 2-0.

Nyva Ternopil vs M. Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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