Today / Italy - Serie A Women / Sassuolo W vs Genoa W

Sassuolo W vs Genoa W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Sassuolo W

PPG 0.78 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Genoa W

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.3%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.8%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.8%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 58.8% 1.70 -28.3%

Draw 30.8% 30.3% 3.30 +1.6%

Away win 27.1% 23.1% 4.33 +17.3%

Over 2.5 44.1% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 50.9% 57.1% 1.75 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.9%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0✓ 8.7%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sassuolo W1.4

Genoa W1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSUOLO W · PPG 0.78

GENOA W · PPG 0.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.78) > Away POOR (0.22)

Win probability 1X2

Sassuolo W (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -28.3%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.6%

Genoa W (A) 27.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sassuolo W face Genoa W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sassuolo W a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Genoa W 27%, so Sassuolo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sassuolo W and 1.1 for Genoa W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sassuolo W are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.22 for Genoa W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Sassuolo W vs Genoa W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Women Predictions