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Genoa U20 vs Cesena U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Genoa U20

PPG 1.53 · HOME

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cesena U20

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.1%0-25.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.2%1-111.7%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.4%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 16.5% 6.05 +120.2%

Draw 28.4% 25.4% 3.94 +11.9%

Away win 35.2% 69.4% 1.44 -49.3%

Over 2.5 54.7% 57.5% 1.74 -4.8%

Over 3.5 32.4% 36.0% 2.78 -9.9%

BTTS 59.8% 54.3% 1.84 +10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.8%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genoa U201.4

Cesena U201.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GENOA U20 · PPG 1.53

CESENA U20 · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Genoa U20 (H) 36.4%

ODDS 6.05 · IMPLIED 16.5% EV +120.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV +11.9%

Cesena U20 (A) 35.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -49.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genoa U20 face Cesena U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genoa U20 a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Cesena U20 35%, so Genoa U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Genoa U20 and 1.4 for Cesena U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genoa U20 are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.18 for Cesena U20. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +120.2%. This match finished 3-5.

Genoa U20 vs Cesena U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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