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Wolfsburg W vs RB Leipzig W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Wolfsburg W

PPG 2.09 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RB Leipzig W

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.4%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.3%1-16.3%1-24.6%1-32.3%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.4%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.4%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-19.3%4+-26.8%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% 76.9% 1.30 -19.5%

Draw 19.4% 21.1% 4.75 -7.8%

Away win 18.6% 12.9% 7.75 +44.1%

Over 2.5 77.8% 72.5% 1.38 +7.4%

Over 3.5 58.8% 51.8% 1.93 +13.5%

BTTS 72.3% 64.5% 1.55 +12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 65%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob72.3%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.5 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wolfsburg W2.6

RB Leipzig W1.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.8% · O3.5 PROB 58.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLFSBURG W · PPG 2.09

RB LEIPZIG W · PPG 1.09

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.09) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Win probability 1X2

Wolfsburg W (H) 61.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -19.5%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -7.8%

RB Leipzig W (A) 18.6%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +44.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wolfsburg W face RB Leipzig W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wolfsburg W a 62% chance, the draw 19% and RB Leipzig W 19%, so Wolfsburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Wolfsburg W and 1.5 for RB Leipzig W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wolfsburg W are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.09 for RB Leipzig W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +44.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Wolfsburg W vs RB Leipzig W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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