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Udinese vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Udinese

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Torino

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.5%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.0%1-112.4%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.0%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 43.9% 2.28 -1.7%

Draw 29.7% 31.7% 3.15 -6.5%

Away win 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Over 2.5 47.8% 47.6% 2.10 +0.4%

Over 3.5 26.1% 26.3% 3.80 -0.8%

BTTS 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.7%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Udinese1.5

Torino1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UDINESE · PPG 1.18

TORINO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.18), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Udinese (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -1.7%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -6.5%

Torino (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Udinese face Torino in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Udinese a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Torino 27%, so Udinese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Udinese and 1.1 for Torino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Udinese are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.00 for Torino. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Udinese vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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