Today / Austria - 2. Liga / Sturm Graz B vs A. Salzburg

Sturm Graz B vs A. Salzburg Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:30

Sturm Graz B

PPG 0.54 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

A. Salzburg

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.08) vs Home POOR (0.54)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.8%0-26.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.2%1-112.5%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.8%2-17.9%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% — — —

Draw 30.0% — — —

Away win 37.0% — — —

Over 2.5 48.7% — — —

Over 3.5 26.9% — — —

BTTS 55.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.2%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturm Graz B1.3

A. Salzburg1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STURM GRAZ B · PPG 0.54

A. SALZBURG · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.08) vs Home POOR (0.54)

Win probability 1X2

Sturm Graz B (H) 33.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Salzburg (A) 37.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturm Graz B face A. Salzburg in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturm Graz B a 33% chance, the draw 30% and A. Salzburg 37%, so A. Salzburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sturm Graz B and 1.4 for A. Salzburg (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturm Graz B are averaging 0.54 points per game versus 1.08 for A. Salzburg. This match finished 0-2.

Sturm Graz B vs A. Salzburg Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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