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St. Polten vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 15:00

St. Polten

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

WSPG Wels

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.8%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.0%1-110.7%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-16.1%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 73.5% 1.36 -28.6%

Draw 25.5% 22.2% 4.50 +8.8%

Away win 22.0% 13.5% 7.40 +37.7%

Over 2.5 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Over 3.5 31.3% 39.2% 2.55 -20.2%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0✓ 11.0%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Polten1.9

WSPG Wels1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. POLTEN · PPG 2.29

WSPG WELS · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

St. Polten (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -28.6%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +8.8%

WSPG Wels (A) 22.0%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +37.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Polten face WSPG Wels in Austria - 2. Liga on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Polten a 53% chance, the draw 26% and WSPG Wels 22%, so St. Polten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for St. Polten and 1.0 for WSPG Wels (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Polten are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.93 for WSPG Wels. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.7%. This match finished 1-0.

St. Polten vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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