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Kapfenberger vs St. Polten Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:00

Kapfenberger

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

St. Polten

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-111.4%0-29.3%0-35.1%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.7%2-16.0%2-24.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 20.8% 4.80 +19.5%

Draw 27.0% 23.8% 4.20 +8.0%

Away win 45.4% 64.5% 1.55 -29.6%

Over 2.5 52.8% 63.7% 1.57 -17.1%

Over 3.5 27.7% 40.0% 2.50 -18.4%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapfenberger1.0

St. Polten1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPFENBERGER · PPG 1.38

ST. POLTEN · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Kapfenberger (H) 27.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +19.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +8.0%

St. Polten (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapfenberger face St. Polten in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapfenberger a 28% chance, the draw 27% and St. Polten 45%, so St. Polten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kapfenberger and 1.6 for St. Polten (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapfenberger are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.38 for St. Polten. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Kapfenberger vs St. Polten Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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