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First Vienna vs Bregenz Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 15:00

First Vienna

PPG 1.31 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bregenz

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.5%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.3%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.6%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 61.7% 1.62 -16.1%

Draw 25.2% 25.3% 3.95 -0.3%

Away win 23.0% 22.2% 4.50 +2.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Over 3.5 27.9% 40.0% 2.50 -18.1%

BTTS 52.1% 63.7% 1.57 -18.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–0✓ 10.4%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

First Vienna1.7

Bregenz0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FIRST VIENNA · PPG 1.31

BREGENZ · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs P(Home)=51.8%

Win probability 1X2

First Vienna (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -16.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.3%

Bregenz (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

First Vienna face Bregenz in Austria - 2. Liga on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives First Vienna a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Bregenz 23%, so First Vienna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for First Vienna and 0.9 for Bregenz (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, First Vienna are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.43 for Bregenz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 2-0.

First Vienna vs Bregenz Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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