Today / Austria - 2. Liga / A. Lustenau vs Amstetten

A. Lustenau vs Amstetten Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 15:00

A. Lustenau

PPG 2.21 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Amstetten

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.0%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 61.0% 1.64 -26.2%

Draw 29.3% 27.4% 3.65 +4.2%

Away win 25.7% 20.0% 5.00 +17.1%

Over 2.5 47.4% 52.6% 1.90 -9.9%

Over 3.5 22.7% 31.3% 3.20 -16.4%

BTTS 52.1% 55.6% 1.80 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1✓ 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Lustenau1.4

Amstetten1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

A. LUSTENAU · PPG 2.21

AMSTETTEN · PPG 1.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.21) > Away GOOD (1.54)

Win probability 1X2

A. Lustenau (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -26.2%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +4.2%

Amstetten (A) 25.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Lustenau face Amstetten in Austria - 2. Liga on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Lustenau a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Amstetten 26%, so A. Lustenau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for A. Lustenau and 1.0 for Amstetten (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Lustenau are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.54 for Amstetten. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 2-1.

A. Lustenau vs Amstetten Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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