Today / Austria - 2. Liga / Sturm Graz B vs Rapid Wien B

Sturm Graz B vs Rapid Wien B Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 15:00

Sturm Graz B

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rapid Wien B

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-110.0%0-27.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.8%1-112.4%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.7%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

Away win 35.9% 32.3% 3.10 +11.3%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Over 3.5 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

BTTS 53.4% 60.6% 1.65 -11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.4%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 1–2✓ 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturm Graz B1.2

Rapid Wien B1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STURM GRAZ B · PPG 0.50

RAPID WIEN B · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Sturm Graz B (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.6%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.5%

Rapid Wien B (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturm Graz B face Rapid Wien B in Austria - 2. Liga on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturm Graz B a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Rapid Wien B 36%, so Sturm Graz B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sturm Graz B and 1.4 for Rapid Wien B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturm Graz B are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.93 for Rapid Wien B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Sturm Graz B vs Rapid Wien B Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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