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UCSA vs Chernihiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

UCSA

PPG 1.42 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Chernihiv

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-111.3%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.6%1-113.3%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-17.8%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.1%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% — — —

Draw 33.7% — — —

Away win 26.4% — — —

Over 2.5 34.7% — — —

Over 3.5 15.9% — — —

BTTS 43.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.4%

H 40% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCSA1.2

Chernihiv0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UCSA · PPG 1.42

CHERNIHIV · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.42) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

UCSA (H) 39.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chernihiv (A) 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UCSA face Chernihiv in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCSA a 40% chance, the draw 34% and Chernihiv 26%, so UCSA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UCSA and 0.9 for Chernihiv (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCSA are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.75 for Chernihiv. This match finished 0-2.

UCSA vs Chernihiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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