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Nurnberg B vs Buchbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Nurnberg B

PPG 2.40 · HOME

8 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Buchbach

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.3%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.1%1-19.2%1-25.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.0%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.2%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 17.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.6% — — —

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 59% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nurnberg B2.1

Buchbach1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NURNBERG B · PPG 2.40

BUCHBACH · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

Nurnberg B (H) 59.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Buchbach (A) 17.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nurnberg B face Buchbach in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nurnberg B a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Buchbach 18%, so Nurnberg B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Nurnberg B and 1.1 for Buchbach (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nurnberg B are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Buchbach. This match finished 8-1.

Nurnberg B vs Buchbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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