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Steinbach vs Freiburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Steinbach

PPG 1.47 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Freiburg B

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.3%0-22.2%0-31.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.1%1-15.9%1-25.5%1-33.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.9%2-17.4%2-26.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.1%3 3-03.3%3-16.2%3-25.8%3-33.6%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-17.0%4+-26.6%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 81.3% — — —

Over 3.5 63.7% — — —

BTTS 78.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob78.6%

H 51% / xG 2.5-1.9 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 2–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 3–1✓ 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Steinbach2.5

Freiburg B1.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.3% · O3.5 PROB 63.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STEINBACH · PPG 1.47

FREIBURG B · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Steinbach (H) 51.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Freiburg B (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Steinbach face Freiburg B in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Steinbach a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Freiburg B 28%, so Steinbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Steinbach and 1.9 for Freiburg B (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Steinbach are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.40 for Freiburg B. This match finished 3-1.

Steinbach vs Freiburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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