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Sandhausen vs Schott Mainz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Sandhausen

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Schott Mainz

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.7%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.2%1-18.4%1-25.6%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.2%3-17.0%3-24.7%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-16.6%4+-24.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 69.4% — — —

Over 3.5 48.1% — — —

BTTS 67.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob67.3%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandhausen2.2

Schott Mainz1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.4% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDHAUSEN · PPG 1.47

SCHOTT MAINZ · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Sandhausen (H) 56.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Schott Mainz (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandhausen face Schott Mainz in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandhausen a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Schott Mainz 21%, so Sandhausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sandhausen and 1.3 for Schott Mainz (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandhausen are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.80 for Schott Mainz. This match finished 0-1.

Sandhausen vs Schott Mainz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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