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FSV Mainz B vs Grossaspach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

FSV Mainz B

PPG 1.87 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Grossaspach

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.87) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.27)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.3%0-26.0%0-33.9%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.9%1-19.4%1-29.1%1-35.8%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-17.0%2-26.8%2-34.4%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 46.5% — — —

Over 2.5 66.5% — — —

Over 3.5 44.7% — — —

BTTS 67.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob67.8%

A 46% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FSV Mainz B1.5

Grossaspach1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FSV MAINZ B · PPG 1.87

GROSSASPACH · PPG 2.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.87) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.27)

Win probability 1X2

FSV Mainz B (H) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Grossaspach (A) 46.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FSV Mainz B face Grossaspach in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FSV Mainz B a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Grossaspach 47%, so Grossaspach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FSV Mainz B and 1.9 for Grossaspach (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FSV Mainz B are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 2.27 for Grossaspach. This match finished 0-0.

FSV Mainz B vs Grossaspach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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