Today / China - Super League / Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan

Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 69% chance

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.9%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.4%1-110.6%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.7%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 39.7% 2.52 +22.0%

Draw 26.3% 27.4% 3.65 -4.0%

Away win 25.3% 41.7% 2.40 -39.3%

Over 2.5 59.2% 67.6% 1.48 -12.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 46.5% 2.15 -20.9%

BTTS 61.6% 72.5% 1.38 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yunnan Yukun1.8

Beijing Guoan1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 2.00

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Yunnan Yukun (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +22.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.0%

Beijing Guoan (A) 25.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -39.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Beijing Guoan 25%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.3 for Beijing Guoan (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Beijing Guoan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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