Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

China - Super League Regular Season - 9 Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium· Yuxi Saturday, May 2, 2026 12:00

Yunnan Yukun PPG 2.00

3-3 MISS

Beijing Guoan PPG 1.40

Home· +22.0% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Beijing Guoan 25%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.3 for Beijing Guoan (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Beijing Guoan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.4%

Odds: 2.52 EV: +22.0%

Draw 26.3%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -4.0%

Away 25.3%

Odds: 2.40 EV: -39.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.2% Odds: 1.48 -12.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% Odds: 2.15 -20.9%

BTTS 61.6% Odds: 1.38 -15.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Yunnan Yukun

1.80

Beijing Guoan

1.27

Model SuggestionBTTS -15.0% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-15.0%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)