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Kapaz vs Sumqayit Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Kapaz

PPG 0.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sumqayit

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-111.7%0-29.0%0-34.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.1%2-16.3%2-24.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.4%3-12.2%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 32.3% 3.10 -26.5%

Draw 29.1% 33.9% 2.95 -14.1%

Away win 47.2% 44.4% 2.25 +6.2%

Over 2.5 47.8% 46.5% 2.15 +2.8%

Over 3.5 26.1% 26.0% 3.85 +0.5%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.7%

A 47% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapaz1.0

Sumqayit1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPAZ · PPG 0.71

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Kapaz (H) 23.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -26.5%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -14.1%

Sumqayit (A) 47.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapaz face Sumqayit in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapaz a 24% chance, the draw 29% and Sumqayit 47%, so Sumqayit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kapaz and 1.5 for Sumqayit (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapaz are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.40 for Sumqayit. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Kapaz vs Sumqayit Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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