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Rudes vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:45

Rudes

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-17.8%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.8%1-111.9%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.1%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 67.6% 1.48 -22.0%

Draw 29.4% 28.6% 3.50 +2.9%

Away win 17.9% 15.6% 6.40 +14.6%

Over 2.5 41.2% 52.4% 1.91 -21.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 45.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.1%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rudes1.5

Dubrava Zagreb0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RUDES · PPG 2.50

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=52.7%

Win probability 1X2

Rudes (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -22.0%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.9%

Dubrava Zagreb (A) 17.9%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rudes face Dubrava Zagreb in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rudes a 53% chance, the draw 29% and Dubrava Zagreb 18%, so Rudes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rudes and 0.8 for Dubrava Zagreb (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rudes are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.85 for Dubrava Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Rudes vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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