Today / Germany - Frauen Bundesliga / FC Koln W vs Werder Bremen W

FC Koln W vs Werder Bremen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:00

FC Koln W

PPG 1.27 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Werder Bremen W

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.6%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.2%1-112.1%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.0%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

Draw 29.2% 29.0% 3.45 +0.7%

Away win 33.4% 44.4% 2.25 -24.9%

Over 2.5 51.5% 60.6% 1.65 -15.0%

Over 3.5 29.4% 38.5% 2.60 -23.6%

BTTS 57.3% 66.7% 1.50 -14.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.3%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Koln W1.4

Werder Bremen W1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KOLN W · PPG 1.27

WERDER BREMEN W · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

FC Koln W (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +2.9%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +0.7%

Werder Bremen W (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Koln W face Werder Bremen W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Koln W a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Werder Bremen W 33%, so FC Koln W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Koln W and 1.3 for Werder Bremen W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Koln W are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.09 for Werder Bremen W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 3-0.

FC Koln W vs Werder Bremen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Frauen Bundesliga Predictions