Today / China - Super League / Qingdao Hainiu vs Shanghai Port

Qingdao Hainiu vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:00

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shanghai Port

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-111.0%0-26.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.4%1-113.0%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.1%2-17.7%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.4%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 30.3% 3.30 +7.9%

Draw 31.3% 30.3% 3.30 +3.3%

Away win 36.0% 48.1% 2.08 -25.1%

Over 2.5 44.0% 60.6% 1.65 -27.4%

Over 3.5 22.9% 39.2% 2.55 -41.6%

BTTS 51.5% 66.7% 1.50 -22.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.5%

D 31% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Hainiu1.2

Shanghai Port1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 1.75

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=32.7%

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Hainiu (H) 32.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +7.9%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +3.3%

Shanghai Port (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Hainiu face Shanghai Port in China - Super League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Hainiu a 33% chance, the draw 31% and Shanghai Port 36%, so Shanghai Port are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.3 for Shanghai Port (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Hainiu are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Shanghai Port. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Qingdao Hainiu vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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