Willem II vs Jong AZ Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 37 Koning Willem II Stadion· Tilburg Friday, April 17, 2026 18:00

Willem II PPG 1.72

3-0 MISS

Jong AZ PPG 1.44

Away· +29.1% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Willem II face Jong AZ in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Willem II a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Jong AZ 27%, so Willem II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Willem II and 1.2 for Jong AZ (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Willem II are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.44 for Jong AZ. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.5%

Odds: 1.57 EV: -22.3%

Draw 23.5%

Odds: 4.40 EV: +3.4%

Away 26.9%

Odds: 4.80 EV: +29.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.2% Odds: 1.38 -21.1%

Over 3.5 34.8% Odds: 1.95 -32.1%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.42 -16.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Willem II

1.75

Jong AZ

1.23

Model SuggestionBTTS -16.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -16.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+29.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.72), Away AVERAGE (1.44)