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Willem II vs Jong AZ Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Willem II

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Jong AZ

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.3%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.9%1-110.9%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.5%3-15.6%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 63.7% 1.57 -22.3%

Draw 23.5% 22.7% 4.40 +3.4%

Away win 26.9% 20.8% 4.80 +29.1%

Over 2.5 57.2% 72.5% 1.38 -21.1%

Over 3.5 34.8% 51.3% 1.95 -32.1%

BTTS 58.5% 70.4% 1.42 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Willem II1.7

Jong AZ1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WILLEM II · PPG 1.72

JONG AZ · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.72), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Willem II (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -22.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.4%

Jong AZ (A) 26.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Willem II face Jong AZ in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Willem II a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Jong AZ 27%, so Willem II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Willem II and 1.2 for Jong AZ (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Willem II are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.44 for Jong AZ. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Willem II vs Jong AZ Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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