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MVV vs Roda Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:45

MVV

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

UPCOMING

Roda

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.0%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.6%1-112.0%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.6%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 30.3% 3.30 +49.8%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 30.1% 48.8% 2.05 -38.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 54.6% 1.83 -32.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MVV1.5

Roda1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MVV · PPG 1.79

RODA · PPG 1.66

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

MVV (H) 45.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +49.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

Roda (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

MVV face Roda in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MVV a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Roda 30%, so MVV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for MVV and 1.2 for Roda (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MVV are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.66 for Roda. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +34.0%.

MVV vs Roda Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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