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Dordrecht vs Jong AZ Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

Dordrecht

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLL ·

UPCOMING

Jong AZ

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.7%0-24.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.0%1-19.8%1-28.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.9%3-24.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.1%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 45.5% 2.20 -14.2%

Draw 23.6% 25.6% 3.90 -4.8%

Away win 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

Over 2.5 65.0% 69.4% 1.44 -6.4%

Over 3.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

BTTS 63.5% 72.5% 1.38 -12.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.8% 1.93 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dordrecht1.7

Jong AZ1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DORDRECHT · PPG 1.37

JONG AZ · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dordrecht (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.8%

Jong AZ (A) 37.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dordrecht face Jong AZ in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dordrecht a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Jong AZ 37%, so Dordrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dordrecht and 1.6 for Jong AZ (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dordrecht are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.44 for Jong AZ.

Dordrecht vs Jong AZ Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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