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Gwangju vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 10:00

Gwangju

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-112.3%0-210.5%0-36.0%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.6%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.1%2-15.3%2-24.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.6% 21.1% 4.75 -11.7%

Draw 27.3% 29.0% 3.45 -5.8%

Away win 54.1% 57.1% 1.75 -5.3%

Over 2.5 49.0% 46.5% 2.15 +5.3%

Over 3.5 27.1% 25.0% 4.00 +8.4%

BTTS 51.1% 51.3% 1.95 -0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob51.1%

A 54% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 0–2 10.5%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju0.9

Daejeon Citizen1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU · PPG 1.00

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju (H) 18.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -11.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.8%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 54.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju face Daejeon Citizen in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju a 19% chance, the draw 27% and Daejeon Citizen 54%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gwangju and 1.7 for Daejeon Citizen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 0-5.

Gwangju vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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