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Vitesse Arnhem vs MVV Maastricht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Vitesse Arnhem

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

MVV Maastricht

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.5%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.9%1-19.5%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-16.9%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.9%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 75.2% 1.33 -19.0%

Draw 20.5% 19.0% 5.25 +7.6%

Away win 18.5% 12.9% 7.75 +43.4%

Over 2.5 61.1% 74.1% 1.35 -17.5%

Over 3.5 38.8% 54.1% 1.85 -28.2%

BTTS 57.4% 65.4% 1.53 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.4%

H 61% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitesse Arnhem2.1

MVV Maastricht1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VITESSE ARNHEM · PPG 1.44

MVV MAASTRICHT · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Vitesse Arnhem (H) 60.9%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -19.0%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.6%

MVV Maastricht (A) 18.5%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +43.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitesse Arnhem face MVV Maastricht in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitesse Arnhem a 61% chance, the draw 21% and MVV Maastricht 19%, so Vitesse Arnhem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Vitesse Arnhem and 1.1 for MVV Maastricht (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitesse Arnhem are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.78 for MVV Maastricht. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +43.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Vitesse Arnhem vs MVV Maastricht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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