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Lazio U20 vs Parma U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 09:00

Lazio U20

PPG 1.47 · HOME

3 – 5

FULL TIME

Parma U20

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-112.4%0-27.4%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.0%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.9%2-17.1%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.1%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 16.7% 6.00 +83.0%

Draw 32.5% 27.4% 3.65 +18.6%

Away win 37.0% 67.6% 1.48 -45.2%

Over 2.5 39.7% 54.1% 1.85 -26.6%

Over 3.5 19.5% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.0%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lazio U201.1

Parma U201.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.7% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LAZIO U20 · PPG 1.47

PARMA U20 · PPG 1.76

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Lazio U20 (H) 30.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +83.0%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +18.6%

Parma U20 (A) 37.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -45.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lazio U20 face Parma U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lazio U20 a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Parma U20 37%, so Parma U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lazio U20 and 1.2 for Parma U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lazio U20 are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.76 for Parma U20. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +83.0%. This match finished 3-5.

Lazio U20 vs Parma U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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