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Persebaya S. vs PSBS Biak N. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 08:30

Persebaya S.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

PSBS Biak N.

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 97.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.6%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.6%1-18.4%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.5%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-17.5%4+-23.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 97.1% 1.03 -32.0%

Draw 20.8% 9.8% 10.25 +113.2%

Away win 13.2% 2.9% 34.00 +348.8%

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.8% 73.5% 1.36 -43.1%

BTTS 57.6% 54.1% 1.85 +6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.6%

H 66% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–0 7.7%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persebaya S.2.3

PSBS Biak N.1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSEBAYA S. · PPG 1.67

PSBS BIAK N. · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Persebaya S. (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.03 · IMPLIED 97.1% EV -32.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +113.2%

PSBS Biak N. (A) 13.2%

ODDS 34.00 · IMPLIED 2.9% EV +348.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persebaya S. face PSBS Biak N. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persebaya S. a 66% chance, the draw 21% and PSBS Biak N. 13%, so Persebaya S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Persebaya S. and 1.0 for PSBS Biak N. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persebaya S. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.40 for PSBS Biak N.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +348.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Persebaya S. vs PSBS Biak N. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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