Persebaya S. vs PSBS Biak N. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 31 Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium· Surabaya Saturday, May 2, 2026 08:30

Persebaya S. PPG 1.67

4-0 MISS

PSBS Biak N. PPG 0.40

Away· +348.8% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Persebaya S. face PSBS Biak N. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persebaya S. a 66% chance, the draw 21% and PSBS Biak N. 13%, so Persebaya S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Persebaya S. and 1.0 for PSBS Biak N. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persebaya S. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.40 for PSBS Biak N.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +348.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 66.0%

Odds: 1.03 EV: -32.0%

Draw 20.8%

Odds: 10.25 EV: +113.2%

Away 13.2%

Odds: 34.00 EV: +348.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 64.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 41.8% Odds: 1.36 -43.1%

BTTS 57.6% Odds: 1.85 +6.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Persebaya S.

2.31

PSBS Biak N.

0.98

Model SuggestionHome -32.0% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-32.0%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus