Today / Netherlands - Eerste Divisie / TOP Oss vs FC Den Bosch

TOP Oss vs FC Den Bosch Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

TOP Oss logo
TOP Oss
PPG 1.00 · HOME
4 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
FC Den Bosch logo
FC Den Bosch
PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.5%0-26.5%0-34.3%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.7%1-19.4%1-29.3%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.6%2-34.4%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 27.9% 34.7% 2.88 -19.7%
Draw 21.8% 26.3% 3.80 -17.2%
Away win 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%
Over 2.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%
Over 3.5 44.4% 44.4% 2.25 -0.1%
BTTS 65.6% 70.4% 1.42 -6.9%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%
O2.5 58%
BTTS 53%
Score Hit 26%
ROI -32.3%
Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 4-2
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob65.6%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%
#2 1–2 9.3%
#3 2–1 6.7%
#4 2–2 6.6%
#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TOP Oss1.4
FC Den Bosch2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TOP OSS · PPG 1.00

FC DEN BOSCH · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

TOP Oss (H) 27.9%
ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -19.7%
Draw 21.8%
ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -17.2%
FC Den Bosch (A) 50.3%
ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

TOP Oss face FC Den Bosch in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TOP Oss a 28% chance, the draw 22% and FC Den Bosch 50%, so FC Den Bosch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for TOP Oss and 2.0 for FC Den Bosch (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TOP Oss are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.17 for FC Den Bosch. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 4-2.

PredictVantage

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