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TOP Oss vs FC Den Bosch Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

TOP Oss

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Den Bosch

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.5%0-26.5%0-34.3%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.7%1-19.4%1-29.3%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.6%2-34.4%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 34.7% 2.88 -19.7%

Draw 21.8% 26.3% 3.80 -17.2%

Away win 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%

Over 2.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Over 3.5 44.4% 44.4% 2.25 -0.1%

BTTS 65.6% 70.4% 1.42 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob65.6%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TOP Oss1.4

FC Den Bosch2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TOP OSS · PPG 1.00

FC DEN BOSCH · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

TOP Oss (H) 27.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -19.7%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -17.2%

FC Den Bosch (A) 50.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

TOP Oss face FC Den Bosch in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TOP Oss a 28% chance, the draw 22% and FC Den Bosch 50%, so FC Den Bosch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for TOP Oss and 2.0 for FC Den Bosch (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TOP Oss are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.17 for FC Den Bosch. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 4-2.

TOP Oss vs FC Den Bosch Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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