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Jeju Utd vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 07:30

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Jeonbuk

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-114.9%0-27.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.0%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.3%2-16.1%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.9%3-11.8%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 23.1% 4.33 +30.8%

Draw 36.2% 29.4% 3.40 +23.1%

Away win 33.6% 54.6% 1.83 -38.5%

Over 2.5 28.7% 47.6% 2.10 -39.7%

Over 3.5 11.9% 26.0% 3.85 -54.2%

BTTS 38.7% 52.6% 1.90 -26.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob38.7%

D 36% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–0 14.0%

#5 0–2✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju Utd0.9

Jeonbuk1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.7% · O3.5 PROB 11.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.00

JEONBUK · PPG 1.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

39%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Jeju Utd (H) 30.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +30.8%

Draw 36.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +23.1%

Jeonbuk (A) 33.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -38.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju Utd face Jeonbuk in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju Utd a 30% chance, the draw 36% and Jeonbuk 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jeju Utd and 1.0 for Jeonbuk (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Jeonbuk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Jeju Utd vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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