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Incheon Utd vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 07:30

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gangwon

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-111.3%0-27.5%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.6%1-112.8%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.5%2-17.3%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.1%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -7.6%

Draw 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away win 39.3% 40.8% 2.45 -3.7%

Over 2.5 44.7% 42.0% 2.38 +6.4%

Over 3.5 23.5% 22.2% 4.50 +5.8%

BTTS 51.8% 51.8% 1.93 -0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.8%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 0–1✓ 11.3%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Utd1.1

Gangwon1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.20

GANGWON · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Utd (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.6%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.3%

Gangwon (A) 39.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Utd face Gangwon in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Utd a 30% chance, the draw 31% and Gangwon 39%, so Gangwon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Incheon Utd and 1.3 for Gangwon (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Utd are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Gangwon. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Incheon Utd vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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