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Roda JC vs FC Emmen Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Roda JC

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Emmen

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 68% chance

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.8%0-23.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.6%1-110.4%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.6%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.8%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 62.5% 1.60 -23.2%

Draw 23.0% 23.1% 4.33 -0.4%

Away win 29.0% 21.7% 4.60 +33.4%

Over 2.5 61.2% 71.4% 1.40 -14.3%

Over 3.5 38.9% 50.0% 2.00 -22.2%

BTTS 62.0% 70.4% 1.42 -12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.0%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Roda JC1.8

FC Emmen1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RODA JC · PPG 1.00

FC EMMEN · PPG 0.83

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Roda JC (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -23.2%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -0.4%

FC Emmen (A) 29.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Roda JC face FC Emmen in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Roda JC a 48% chance, the draw 23% and FC Emmen 29%, so Roda JC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Roda JC and 1.4 for FC Emmen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Roda JC are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.83 for FC Emmen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Roda JC vs FC Emmen Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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