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Ulsan vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 05:00

Ulsan

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pohang Steelers

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.6%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.9%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 45.5% 2.20 -0.6%

Draw 28.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.5%

Away win 26.2% 30.8% 3.25 -14.8%

Over 2.5 51.2% 47.6% 2.10 +7.5%

Over 3.5 29.1% 26.3% 3.80 +10.6%

BTTS 56.0% 55.6% 1.80 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.0%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 6.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan1.6

Pohang Steelers1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN · PPG 1.40

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=45.2%

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.6%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.5%

Pohang Steelers (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan face Pohang Steelers in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Pohang Steelers 26%, so Ulsan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ulsan and 1.2 for Pohang Steelers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Ulsan vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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