Ulsan vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

South-Korea - K League 1 Regular Season - 11 Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium· Ulsan Saturday, May 2, 2026 05:00

Ulsan PPG 1.40

0-1 MISS

Pohang Steelers PPG 0.50

Over3.5· +10.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan face Pohang Steelers in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Pohang Steelers 26%, so Ulsan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ulsan and 1.2 for Pohang Steelers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.2%

Odds: 2.20 EV: -0.6%

Draw 28.6%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -8.5%

Away 26.2%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -14.8%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.2% Odds: 2.10 +7.5%

Over 3.5 29.1% Odds: 3.80 +10.6%

BTTS 56.0% Odds: 1.80 +0.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Ulsan

1.57

Pohang Steelers

1.15

Model SuggestionBTTS +0.8% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+10.6%)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=45.2%