Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

South-Korea - K League 1 Regular Season - 11 Seoul World Cup Stadium· Seoul Saturday, May 2, 2026 05:00

Seoul PPG 2.25

2-3 MISS

Gimcheon Sangmu PPG 1.20

Home· +2.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul face Gimcheon Sangmu in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul a 59% chance, the draw 28% and Gimcheon Sangmu 14%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Seoul and 0.7 for Gimcheon Sangmu (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.20 for Gimcheon Sangmu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.6%

Odds: 1.75 EV: +2.5%

Draw 27.6%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -3.4%

Away 13.8%

Odds: 4.60 EV: -36.5%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.1% Odds: 2.00 -17.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% Odds: 3.50 -27.9%

BTTS 41.8% Odds: 1.83 -23.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Seoul

1.64

Gimcheon Sangmu

0.69

Model SuggestionHome +2.5% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -73.5%

Bet Hit 17% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=58.6%