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Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 05:00

Seoul

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-16.7%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-111.0%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.0%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-14.9%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 57.1% 1.75 +2.5%

Draw 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -3.4%

Away win 13.8% 21.7% 4.60 -36.5%

Over 2.5 41.1% 50.0% 2.00 -17.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 28.6% 3.50 -27.9%

BTTS 41.8% 54.6% 1.83 -23.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.8%

H 59% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul1.6

Gimcheon Sangmu0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL · PPG 2.25

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=58.6%

Win probability 1X2

Seoul (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +2.5%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.4%

Gimcheon Sangmu (A) 13.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul face Gimcheon Sangmu in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul a 59% chance, the draw 28% and Gimcheon Sangmu 14%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Seoul and 0.7 for Gimcheon Sangmu (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.20 for Gimcheon Sangmu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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