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Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Jong Utrecht

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Eindhoven

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 69% chance

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.9%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.6%1-110.2%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.8%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.2%4+-22.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

Draw 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -13.4%

Away win 34.7% 35.7% 2.80 -2.8%

Over 2.5 63.1% 67.6% 1.48 -6.6%

Over 3.5 40.9% 45.5% 2.20 -10.0%

BTTS 64.4% 71.4% 1.40 -9.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.4%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Utrecht1.7

FC Eindhoven1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG UTRECHT · PPG 1.44

FC EINDHOVEN · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Utrecht (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.1%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.4%

FC Eindhoven (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Utrecht face FC Eindhoven in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Utrecht a 42% chance, the draw 23% and FC Eindhoven 35%, so Jong Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jong Utrecht and 1.5 for FC Eindhoven (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.94 for FC Eindhoven. This match finished 3-0.

Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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