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Maitland vs Charlestown A. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 04:00

Maitland

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.2%0-23.5%0-31.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.1%1-18.5%1-27.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.5%3-15.7%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.6%4+-23.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 47.6% 2.10 -5.1%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -18.7%

Away win 30.9% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Over 2.5 71.0% — — —

Over 3.5 50.0% — — —

BTTS 71.4% 69.4% 1.44 +2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob71.4%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland2.0

Charlestown A.1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.0% · O3.5 PROB 50.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 1.00

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.7%

Charlestown A. (A) 30.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Charlestown A. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Charlestown A. 31%, so Maitland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Maitland and 1.7 for Charlestown A. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Charlestown A.. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Maitland vs Charlestown A. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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