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Lambton Jaffas vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 04:00

Lambton Jaffas

PPG 0.83 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Belmont Swansea

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.6%0-23.1%0-32.4%0-4+2.5%1 1-02.4%1-15.6%1-26.6%1-35.2%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.5%2-16.0%2-27.1%2-35.6%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.8%3-14.3%3-25.1%3-34.0%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.8%4+-24.5%4+-33.5%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 61.7% 1.62 -42.3%

Draw 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -16.0%

Away win 43.4% 23.8% 4.20 +82.3%

Over 2.5 82.7% — — —

Over 3.5 65.9% — — —

BTTS 80.8% 71.4% 1.40 +13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob80.8%

A 43% / xG 2.1-2.4 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 81%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 1–2✓ 6.6%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 2–1 6.0%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lambton Jaffas2.1

Belmont Swansea2.4

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.7% · O3.5 PROB 65.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 0.83

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Lambton Jaffas (H) 35.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -42.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -16.0%

Belmont Swansea (A) 43.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +82.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lambton Jaffas face Belmont Swansea in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lambton Jaffas a 36% chance, the draw 21% and Belmont Swansea 43%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lambton Jaffas and 2.4 for Belmont Swansea (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 81% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lambton Jaffas are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 2.00 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +82.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Lambton Jaffas vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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